Evaluation of GEV Over LP3 When Predicting Return Period Annual Exceedance For Santa Ana, San Gabriel and Urbanized Regions in California

Maria Beatriz de Paula Macedo

Evaluation of GEV Over LP3 When Predicting Return Period Annual Exceedance For Santa Ana, San Gabriel and Urbanized Regions in California

Maria Beatriz de Paula Macedo

Research output: Thesis › Master's Thesis

Abstract

The objective of this present thesis was to determine whether GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) itself can be a more conservative distribution than LP3 (Log Pearson III) associated with other methods, such as the B17B weighting procedure with Single Grubbs-Beck (SGB) for low outliers, when determining the projected floods in a flood frequency analysis (FFA) for Santa Ana and San Gabriel regions and other urbanized stream gages present in California. In this work, USGS PeakFQ was utilized. From the results obtained, it was possible to state that GEV fitting results were directly affected by the length of the data. When the length of the record is short, it is not accurate to use a projection of 100-year return period, for example, to represent future projection. Comparing the LP3 and GEV CDFs, for the majority of the stream gages analyzed in this project, GEV proves to be the most conservative method, with smaller return periods.

Original language	English
Qualification	Master of Science, Engineering in Civil Engineering
Awarding Institution	Loyola Marymount University
Supervisors/Advisors	Kendall, Donald R., Advisor, External person Pal, Jeremy, Advisor Weber, Joseph, Advisor
State	Published - Feb 2022
Externally published	Yes

Access to Document

http://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/etd/1246

Cite this

@mastersthesis{626835ef526a4d679214cd60ef3b22f4,

title = "Evaluation of GEV Over LP3 When Predicting Return Period Annual Exceedance For Santa Ana, San Gabriel and Urbanized Regions in California",

abstract = "The objective of this present thesis was to determine whether GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) itself can be a more conservative distribution than LP3 (Log Pearson III) associated with other methods, such as the B17B weighting procedure with Single Grubbs-Beck (SGB) for low outliers, when determining the projected floods in a flood frequency analysis (FFA) for Santa Ana and San Gabriel regions and other urbanized stream gages present in California. In this work, USGS PeakFQ was utilized. From the results obtained, it was possible to state that GEV fitting results were directly affected by the length of the data. When the length of the record is short, it is not accurate to use a projection of 100-year return period, for example, to represent future projection. Comparing the LP3 and GEV CDFs, for the majority of the stream gages analyzed in this project, GEV proves to be the most conservative method, with smaller return periods.",

author = "Macedo, {Maria Beatriz de Paula}",

year = "2022",

month = feb,

language = "English",

series = "LMU/LLS Theses and Dissertations",

school = "Loyola Marymount University",

}

TY - THES

T1 - Evaluation of GEV Over LP3 When Predicting Return Period Annual Exceedance For Santa Ana, San Gabriel and Urbanized Regions in California

AU - Macedo, Maria Beatriz de Paula

PY - 2022/2

Y1 - 2022/2

N2 - The objective of this present thesis was to determine whether GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) itself can be a more conservative distribution than LP3 (Log Pearson III) associated with other methods, such as the B17B weighting procedure with Single Grubbs-Beck (SGB) for low outliers, when determining the projected floods in a flood frequency analysis (FFA) for Santa Ana and San Gabriel regions and other urbanized stream gages present in California. In this work, USGS PeakFQ was utilized. From the results obtained, it was possible to state that GEV fitting results were directly affected by the length of the data. When the length of the record is short, it is not accurate to use a projection of 100-year return period, for example, to represent future projection. Comparing the LP3 and GEV CDFs, for the majority of the stream gages analyzed in this project, GEV proves to be the most conservative method, with smaller return periods.

AB - The objective of this present thesis was to determine whether GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) itself can be a more conservative distribution than LP3 (Log Pearson III) associated with other methods, such as the B17B weighting procedure with Single Grubbs-Beck (SGB) for low outliers, when determining the projected floods in a flood frequency analysis (FFA) for Santa Ana and San Gabriel regions and other urbanized stream gages present in California. In this work, USGS PeakFQ was utilized. From the results obtained, it was possible to state that GEV fitting results were directly affected by the length of the data. When the length of the record is short, it is not accurate to use a projection of 100-year return period, for example, to represent future projection. Comparing the LP3 and GEV CDFs, for the majority of the stream gages analyzed in this project, GEV proves to be the most conservative method, with smaller return periods.

M3 - Master's Thesis

T3 - LMU/LLS Theses and Dissertations

ER -